How Data Mining Works

How Data Mining Works

How exactly is data mining able to tell you important things that you didn't know or what is going to happen next? The technique that is used to perform these feats in data mining is called modeling. Modeling is simply the act of building a model in one situation where you know the answer and then applying it to another situation that you don't. For instance, if you were looking for a sunken Spanish galleon on the high seas the first thing you might do is to research the times when Spanish treasure had been found by others in the past. You might note that these ships often tend to be found off the coast of Bermuda and that there are certain characteristics to the ocean currents, and certain routes that have likely been taken by the ship’s captains in that era. You note these similarities and build a model that includes the characteristics that are common to the locations of these sunken treasures. With these models in hand you sail off looking for treasure where your model indicates it most likely might be given a similar situation in the past. Hopefully, if you've got a good model, you find your treasure.
This act of model building is thus something that people have been doing for a long time, certainly before the advent of computers or data mining technology. What happens on computers, however, is not much different than the way people build models. Computers are loaded up with lots of information about a variety of situations where an answer is known and then the data mining software on the computer must run through that data and distill the characteristics of the data that should go into the model. Once the model is built it can then be used in similar situations where you don't know the answer. For example, say that you are the director of marketing for a telecommunications company and you'd like to acquire some new long distance phone customers. You could just randomly go out and mail coupons to the general population - just as you could randomly sail the seas looking for sunken treasure. In neither case would you achieve the results you desired and of course you have the opportunity to do much better than random - you could use your business experience stored in your database to build a model.

The goal in prospecting is to make some calculated guesses about the information in the lower right hand quadrant based on the model that we build going from Customer General Information to Customer Proprietary Information. For instance, a simple model for a telecommunications company might be:
98% of my customers who make more than $60,000/year spend more than $80/month on long distance
This model could then be applied to the prospect data to try to tell something about the proprietary information that this telecommunications company does not currently have access to. With this model in hand new customers can be selectively targeted.
Test marketing is an excellent source of data for this kind of modeling. Mining the results of a test market representing a broad but relatively small sample of prospects can provide a foundation for identifying good prospects in the overall market. Table 3 shows another common scenario for building models: predict what is going to happen in the future.

If someone told you that he had a model that could predict customer usage how would you know if he really had a good model? The first thing you might try would be to ask him to apply his model to your customer base - where you already knew the answer. With data mining, the best way to accomplish this is by setting aside some of your data in a vault to isolate it from the mining process. Once the mining is complete, the results can be tested against the data held in the vault to confirm the model’s validity. If the model works, its observations should hold for the vaulted data.

Post Purchase Consumer Behaviour

View more presentations from King Julian.

Post Purchase Consumer Behaviour / Post Purchase Dissonance / Cognitive dissonance

PROMOTION MIX / MARKETING COMMUNICATION MIX

Promotion Mix

View more presentations from King Julian.

PROMOTION MIX / MARKETING COMMUNICATION MIX

Download File for complete view of slides :)

Brand Personality - PPT

Brand Personality

View more presentations from King Julian.

Oh..Crap ...!!

Content being Prepared
 

my INTERVIEW EXPERIENCES after mba - Over Confidence(1/15)

students.....like me, thanks to our obsessions, forget about the touch we need to maintain with the ground while we start flying toward the sky, leading to certain undesirable events...
Even if you are prepared to the extreme for an interview, this lost touch, can actually kill all your dreams, can shatter your image, cause embarrassment. You feel like your insufficiency is made public. Nowhere to hide, cause you are The Public.


Now what actually in laymen terms, this Lost Touch is....??


YES! You guessed it Right, Over-Confidence.. [i know you read the title :-p]


Unlike banana, Overconfidence comes in many flavors [oh.don't confuse urself with banana, just another bad example ;) ]


You are overconfident, when you actually start ignoring the odds, you are covered in the certitude. You start behaving in such a manner, that you see self image in everybody's eyes. You feel (imagine) things, things you would like to happen to you. Call it Attention, u feel everybody is looking at you, discussing about you, Fear You. Fear, You know, or to explain this in the right words would be, that, you want to see fear in your competitions' eyes. Fear of you getting selected. You become more than happy..! You imagine how things will shape up during the interview. In simpler words, you are not you, you are the one who has designed the interview questions & handed it over to the interviewer....just like that ;) sort of u just think that how good the interview will go...!! 


Damn....the next thing that come is overconfidence getting you knocked out...!!
How this happened...??    well the reason is quite simple.....you become limited by your imagination, you are unable to think beyond your winning streak that you just prepared outside..This situation lead to a mental state characterized by a lack of clear and orderly thought and behavior. you tend to answer the unpredicted questions in a very unusual way, with unusual prodigious explanations.....!!

Clearly, (irrespective of the their beliefs, experiences, or gender) the interviewer will say to you to leave for the day & to wait for the phone call....which factually never comes....!!

 "...before you attempt to beat the odds, be sure you could survive the odds beating you..."

Another reason for over-confident behavior can be your luck, or being in a truly uncompetitive environment (say you are one of the best in your batch, in a way or other). These two reasons are connected to some extent. For example, after being (luckily) selected in your first interview, one start undermining his/her competition's capabilities, leading to rise in confidence level, while on the other hand your competition just had an awesome experience of a rejection, helping him/her to know her weak points & target points. And in the next interview you are same (may not be so lucky), while your competition is more worried, but prepared, might have already considered his/her other negatives, and has prepared a well thought pitch/script to counter. God knows how their worried, tensed faces, painted with Looser(YOU IMAGINE THAT part), are going to ruin your day...No Need to Guess What role Overconfidence will play during off-campus placements...! You are not the Best There dear :)



Conclusion is that, for any interview an overconfident candidate will take into account only their planning, generally ignoring external factors. Hence, unable to foresee future developments. Leading to a greater Risk of Failure

----------------------
But the Story doesn't end here. What if I say, overconfidence sometimes leads to a greater good ?
The answer is YES! 

To Know More and How to Tackle/Utilize The Negative Powers of Over-Confidence
Read This Small Part of a Short Story :   Oh..Crap ...!!

Tip: Many a Times Overconfidence works....!! IF not then gives you a good lesson of a lifetime :)

Read Previous Issue :  my INTERVIEW EXPERIENCES after mba - PILOT (0/15)

my INTERVIEW EXPERIENCES after mba

my INTERVIEW EXPERIENCES after mba - PILOT (0/15)

"...it happens...happens a lot, and at times, you...you are just thrown away in the first round......."

I am talking about Interviews......JOB HUNT...... or often categorized by me as most-prized-possession you can have in these terribly unstable business times.... & when every second institution is sending their 60 warriors to compete with you.....maybe more????

& that, well, explains where have i been all those months....YES, i was, like you, in search of MY dream job...!!

So did i get it...?? Well that's a million dollar question.!! Don't worry u'll get to know, soon.

My talk right now and for coming month will be solely on Interviews, and, is restricted to MBA....and i won't be talking about others courses.....'cos 1) its apparent, that the situation is just more or less same everywhere, & 2) well, that's one of the most important thing u'll come to know & will help you get you on top..!!

In This Special Edition i'll be covering all the facets of interviews, that i have had experiences with. I won't be telling and yelling things which many of Us, have already heard and read in various articles, i mean they are just fairly disgusting. Know what???? even those interviewers go through those so called tips & tricks, as they say..!!

"..it's a stinking world out there..."

So guys, i have nothing to say but to interviewers, fasten your seat belt SIRE, these kids are gonna rock your head after I prepare them for the big Huddle - U

my INTERVIEW EXPERIENCES after mba

Personal Selling Process

Step 1> Opening :
Example: Retail Salesperson - "...in can see that you appear to be interested in our stereo equipment. What kind of system do you have in mind?..."

Step 2> Need andProblem identification: Need analysis approach suggests that early in the sales process the salesperson should adopt a question-and-listen posture, to identify what actually the customer is looking for. salesperson should focus on questioning open ended questions rather than closed ended questions.

Step 3> Presentation andDocumentation: Benefits should be analysed at two levels: * ...the benefits which can be obtained by purchasing of a particular type of product. * ...the benefits that can be obtained by purchasing that product from a particular supplier.

NOTE: Many sales situtations involve risk to the buyer. The buyer may be reluctant to change from the present supplier or present model because doing so may lead to unforseen problems - like delievery of product may be unsatisfactory in the new model or unreliable.
There four major ways a salesperson can reduce the risk:
(a) Reference Selling
(b) Demonstration
(c) Guarantees
(d) Trial Orders

Step4> Dealing with Objections: Objections are any concerns or questions raised by the buyer, while some objectives are an exception of confusion, doubt or disagreement with the statements or information presented by the salesperson. What the buyer is asking for is further information because s/he is interested in what the salesperson is saying...!! Effective approaches for dealing with objections involve two areas: *...the preparation of convincing answers. *...the development of a range of techniques for answering objections in a manner which permits the acceptance of these answers without the loss of face on the part of buyer.

The various techiniques are as Follows:
(i) Listen and do not interrupt
(ii) Agree and Counter
(iii) Question the Objection
(iv) Trial Close
(v) Hidden Objections
(vi) The Straight Denials .......
TBConti.

BLOGGER IS BACK

It's been quite a long tym since my last post...was quite busy for soooo long...
based on the importance of this blog to my the readers..i've now decide to makeit the most happening and a bank of knowledge for the management aspirants and students....!!

Wish me luck for my "new" Start..!!

With Luv..!!
Ankur Blogger
ankur.blogger@gmail.com

Current Affairs

Colored Currents 2009

1] Whom did Rahul Gandhi refer to as "Sher-e-Punjab" and the "the pride of India" recently?
2] Who is the richest candidate to file his nomination papers in the Lok sabha elections so far?
3] How much did the Obamas pay in federal income tax for the year 2008?
4] After P. Chidambaram and Naveen Jindal, it was the turn of a which top BJP leader to face a 'flying footwear'?
5] What is the name of Hollywood actor Mel Gibsons' wife of 28 years who has recently filed for divorce?
6] Who is the present army chief of Bangladesh?
7] Who is RJD president Lalu Prasads' main rival in the Saran constituency in Bihar?
8] What is the name of the new lawyer appointed by special court to defend Mumbai terror attack accused Ajmal Qasab?
9] What is the name of new election commissioner who has succeeded N. Gopalaswami?

Keys:
i) Manmohan Singh; ii) Deepak Bhardwaj; iii) 4.2 crore; iv) L.K.Advani;
v) Robyn Denise Moore; vi) Gen. Moeen Ahmed; vii) Rajiv Pratap Rudy;
viii) Abbas Kazmi ix) Navin Chawla


Enhance UR GK - Go to "iankur GK" Label

The Thrift Brigade

From raw material to salaries, from advertising to fuel burn, a clutch of disparate companies is cutting costs to stay competitive and weather the slowdown.

These Ten Companies were among the standouts in cost control.

How...??

$ Pantaloon Retail - will save Rs 125 Cr by creating One Back-End Entity for Marketing, Hr, and IT.

$ By re-negotiating a 20-4-% cut in rentals at 50 outlets, Vishal Retail has cut its rental bills from Rs 8.5 Cr to Rs 6.5 Cr.

$ Tata Chemicals is Reviewing Every Item of costs across geographies, manufacturing, supply chains and overheads.

$ ICICI Bank cut its marketing spend from Rs 416 Cr to Rs 103 Cr by Reducing Reliance On DSAS and cutting back on promotion.

$ Its leadership established, Dish TV slashed its Above-The-Line spending by 30% and upped Below-The-Line promotion.

$ The Ashok Leyland top management has taken a voluntary salary cut, lowering wages by 20%.

$ Jet Airways plans to phase out its pool of 250 odd expat pilots, who charge 30-40% more, from its base of 1,350 pilots

$ By buying coal in the spot market, Tata Steel managed savings of $16.4 million.

$ Spice Jet pays oil companies and airport operators on-time to get discounts in return.

$ The offline-online ad mix of INFO EDGE has changed from 93:7 in 2003-04 to 29:71 in 2008-09.

General Knowledge

Some Facts & Figures of Lok Sabha Elections 2009

--------------------------------------------------------------

Number of Phases: 5

Total polling centres: 8,28,824

Total Number of voters: 71.1 crores

Total Polling Officials: 40,00,000

Details of 5 Phases:

1st Phase on April 16th in 124 constituencies

2nd Phase on April 23rd in 141 constituencies

3rd Phase on April 30th in 107 constituencies

4th Phase on May 7th in 85 constituencies

5th Phase on May 13th in 86 constituencies

Counting of the votes will be on May 16th


Enhance UR GK - Go to "iankur GK" Label

Thought For The Day...!!

icoolankur.blogspot.com

"No one is Perfect...That’s why pencils have erasers...!!"

General Knowledge

Did You Know...

- The first person to win two Nobel Prizes was Madame Marie Curie - in Physics (1903) and Chemistry (1911).

- Meteorologists estimate that lightning strikes about 6,000 times per minute on Earth.

Enhance UR GK - Go to "iankur GK" Label

Electronic Payment Systems [EPS]

INTRODUCTION:

An electronic payment system is needed for compensation for information, goods and services provided through the Internet - such as access to copyrighted materials, database searches or consumption of system resources - or as a convenient form of payment for external goods and services - such as merchandise and services provided outside the Internet. it helps to automate sales activities, extends the potential number of customers and may reduce the amount of paperwork.

REQUIREMENTS:

Security: payment systems are very likely to become a target for criminal attacks.
Flexibility: different models for different situations (anonymity, accountability, risk).
Computational efficiency: support for micropayment; per-transaction cost must be small enough so that they are insignificant.

PAYMENT METHODS:

Secure (or non-secure) presentation: the customer provides credit card information over a secure (or even clear) transportation means.
Customer registration: the customer gets a password or digital signature based on a credit card (hides the credit card information from the merchant, but still clears through the credit card).
Credit-debit instruments: similar to customer registration but only one bill per month either through credit card or debit check.
Electronic currency: this method has potential for anonymity but requires tamper resistant hardware.
Server scrip: the customer gets a kind of coupons from an agent that can be spend only with one particular merchant. this reduces the risk of double spending and allows off-line transactions.
Direct transfer: the customer initiates the transfer of funds to the account of the merchant. this method provides no anonymity.
Collection agent: the merchant refers the customer to a third party who collects payment using one of the methods mentioned above.

Of all models, (non-)secure presentation is the only model that has a large customer base today. all other methods require a special hardware and/or software that most potential customers don't have.

Thought For The Day...!!

icoolankur.blogspot.com

"Defeat is not defeat unless accepted as a reality - in your own mind...!!"

Promotion Mix

Your marketing plan will be executed by using the tactical elements of the Marketing Communications, or Promotions Mix. The elements of the marketing communications mix

The Marketing Communications Mix is the specific mix of advertising, personal selling, sales promotion, public relations, and direct marketing a company uses to pursue its advertising and marketing objectives.

Definitions:
Advertising - Any paid form of nonpersonal presentation and promotion of ideas, goods, or services by an identified sponsor.
Personal selling - Personal presentation by the firm’s sales force for the purpose of making sales and building customer relationships.
Sales promotion - Short-term incentives to encourage the purchase or sale of a product or service.
Public relations - Building good relationships with the company’s various publics by obtaining favorable publicity, building up a good "corporate image", and handling or heading off unfavorable rumors, stories, and events.
Direct marketing - Direct communications with carefully targeted individual consumers to obtain an immediate response and cultivate lasting customer relationships.

Thought For The Day...!!

icoolankur.blogspot.com

"The most difficult thing in the world is to know how to do a thing and to watch somebody else doing it wrong, without comment...!!"

Thought For The Day...!!

icoolankur.blogspot.com

"If you think sky is the limit, you've got limited imagination....!!"

Resume Building Tips For Internships

You will need a resume if you are looking for an internship and applying for the intern jobs. And remember your resume will be one of the deciding factor for getting a call for internship.

A well made resume, which identifies your goals, academic background, skills, experience (if any), and activities, is just as critical for the internship search as it will be for your job search after you complete your education. A resume or CV which is for internship may not be very different from the one that you will use for a job application - both in intent and content. However, you may include some information for the internship resume which you may not in your final resume for the job search.

Structure of an internship resume:


* Objective of Internship: Write your objective for internship (customize for internship you are applying)
* Skills: Write your skill set (relevant to internship you are applying)
* Relevant experience: Write your experience relevant for internship. This may be part time experience or other projects. Explain in detail.
* Other experience: List the other experience (not related to internship being applied for). Be brief as this is not so relevant.
* Education: (Reverse Chronological - include present course up to last semester)
* Awards and Honors: (List any awards, honors, scholarships)
* Extra curricular activities
* References: Give some academic and if possible related industry references
* Contact Information: (Name, Address, Phone, Email)

Some Tips for writing internship resume:

* Tailor your resume for internship your are applying
* Write tailored cover letter or email
* Use 'Reverse Chronological' for education and experience
* Keep the contact details latest (don't miss that one call)
* Propose your project while being flexible to change it if organization demands
* Keep it short - 1 page resume and 5 line cover letter
* Be prepared with your "Elevator Speech"

If you modify your resume based on tips above you will soon get the positive feedback from employers.

Best wishes for your internships!
iankur